Bitcoin balances on exchanges just hit a five-year low, reported BTC financial services firm Swan on May 1.

“Strategy just added 15,000 more BTC, ETFs are stacking, and sovereign wealth is circling,” they observed before asking, “So why isn’t the price exploding?”

Bitcoin has encountered resistance at the $95,000 level and has remained in consolidation there for the past week.

Next Move Won’t Be Linear

Swan analysts noted that some BTC is leaving exchanges for cold storage, which is bullish as it signals long-term conviction.

However, a large portion is flowing into institutional custody, such as ETFs, fund administrators, and trading infrastructure, they said before adding, “The coins aren’t gone. They’re just moving upstream.”

Bitcoin balances on exchanges just hit a 5-year low.
Meanwhile:
•MicroStrategy just added 15,000 more BTC
•ETFs are stacking
•Sovereign wealth is circling

So why isn’t the price exploding?

Here’s what most people are missing… pic.twitter.com/LG4yyex4r4

— Swan (@Swan) April 30, 2025

Additionally, not all of this Bitcoin is idle, with some held passively, and some is active in structured products, yield platforms, or as collateral, which is why prices are not increasing immediately.

“Bitcoin is still a market, and in markets, sellers never disappear.”

Some are traders looking for short-term gains, some are long-term holders shaving off profits, and some are speculators who never understood what they bought, they said.

Commenting on Strategy’s recent accumulation of BTC, they said that miners produce around 13,500 BTC per month, “But Strategy, using cheap debt and relentless capital, has outpaced that production for months,” in a kind of “synthetic halving.”

They’re not just stacking, they’re “compressing Bitcoin’s supply curve from the outside,” the analysts said before concluding:

“So yes, supply is drying up. But price moves when demand breaks the equilibrium. And with infinite fiat chasing a truly scarce asset, Bitcoin’s next move won’t be linear. It will be violent. And likely irreversible.”

Analyst “Rekt Capital” took a stab at Bitcoin’s price discovery roadmap, stating that the asset is trying to finalize its first price discovery correction to transition into its second price uptrend.

#BTC

Bitcoin Price Discovery Roadmap

Bitcoin is trying to finalise its First Price Discovery Correction (green) to transition into its Second Price Discovery Uptrend (red)

(Prices and time horizons are not to scale)$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/yfY3h60Ywy pic.twitter.com/yahXUIpVkY

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 30, 2025

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Bitcoin fell to an intraday low below $93,400 before recovering to $94,800 during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.

The asset remains tightly range-bound between $93,000 and just over $95,000, however. Nevertheless, it has gained more than 12% over the past month and strongly recovered from an early April dip to $75,000.

“Bitcoin is testing key resistance at $93K–$95K, breaking its downtrend and forming a higher high,” reported Glassnode, which added, “On-chain and technical signals show a market at a turning point.”