Former White House attorney Ty Cobb labeled the indictment against James Comey as “vindictive prosecution” and predicted it will be dismissed. The “James Comey arrested by April 29?” market sits at 67.5% YES, down sharply after Cobb’s remarks.

Cobb’s comments coincided with a 16-point drop in the April 29 market to its current level. The May 15 market holds at 91.5% YES, meaning traders still expect an arrest within two weeks. The 20-point gap between the April 29 and May 15 contracts suggests traders think the most likely window for action falls in early-to-mid May rather than the next few days.

Combined 24-hour volume across both markets is $52,511 in USDC. It takes $5,410 to move the April 29 odds by 5 points, compared to $8,223 for the May 15 contract, which points to stronger conviction in the later deadline. The largest single move was a 16-point drop at 10:05 PM, likely triggered by Cobb’s remarks.

Cobb’s argument frames the prosecution as politically motivated and procedurally flawed. That reading fits the bearish signals: no arrest warrant has surfaced, the charges could be dismissed, and the DOJ may be downplaying arrest intentions. Buying YES at 67.5¢ pays 1.33x if Comey is arrested by April 29, but Cobb’s critique gives traders a concrete reason to bet against that timeline.

The next catalysts are any public statements from DOJ or FBI officials, particularly Lindsey Halligan or Todd Blanche. Comments from either could move both contracts quickly.

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