Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin hit $79,490 on April 27 before a sharp retreat following news of a proposed U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
• Market volatility exceeding 2.63% saw Coinglass report $56.8 million in short liquidations in 12 hours.
• Michaël van de Poppe eyes a breakout above $84,000 as proof the bear market ended after a 15% April gain.

The Iran Ceasefire Proposal Factor

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $79,000 late Sunday following reports that Iran had submitted a proposal to the U.S. aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Market data show the cryptocurrency rose from just under $78,000 to a session high of $79,490 within three hours. It stayed above $79,000 until the early hours of April 27, when it plummeted to $77,500, effectively wiping out the gains made hours earlier.

The retreat erased more than $30 billion from bitcoin’s value and dragged its market capitalization back to $1.55 trillion. The price volatility, which Coinglass data showed exceeded 2.63%, resulted in approximately $56.8 million in bitcoin short liquidations over 12 hours, compared to $38 million in longs.

As reported by several media outlets, Iran delivered its proposal via Pakistani mediators, suggesting an extended ceasefire and the reopening of the strait in exchange for a pause in the U.S. naval blockade. While the U.S. Military’s initial strikes and pressure campaign may not have achieved desired results, the naval blockade of Iranian ports has seemingly turned the tables by depriving the country of a vital revenue source.

By seeking an end to the blockade and an extension of the ceasefire, Iran signaled it may be ready to make a giant concession to end a war that has devastated the global economy. However, some observers noted that Tehran’s proposals appear to relegate a key issue that led President Donald Trump to launch strikes: the nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade, they say, are products of the war that both parties might use to exit a conflict that lacks a clear off-ramp for the U.S.

While Middle East tensions have fueled bitcoin’s rise in recent weeks, some analysts believe the price action indicates the cryptocurrency is exiting a bear market. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, said a breakout above $84,000 and $87,000 would be evidence that “we’re done with the bear market.”

“If you look at the statistical impact of the previous crash to $60,000, there’s been only one scenario where the markets have hit new lows: the fourth quarter of 2022 during the FTX collapse,” van de Poppe said.

Although he conceded a cataclysmic event similar to FTX could happen again, van de Poppe asserted that, statistically, a new all-time high is typically reached in less than 12 months following such a collapse.

As of 3:30 a.m. EDT on April 27, market data show bitcoin has gained approximately 15% since the start of the month. The rally has helped narrow the cryptocurrency’s year-to-date losses to 11%, down from a peak of more than 20% seen at the end of March.