A negative Coinbase Premium Index suggests that US-based institutional buyers have been largely absent from the market.

Ethereum (ETH) has lost more than half its peak value in nine months, and the buyers who normally step in to cushion the fall are nowhere to be found.

According to on-chain analyst Easy On Chain, the current situation is particularly uncomfortable not just because of the price drop itself, but also due to a growing disconnect between the derivatives market and actual spot demand.

A Market Divided Against Itself

In a market report published on May 21, Easy On Chain painted a bleak picture for Ethereum’s broader structure, saying the token has already entered a medium- to long-term bear phase after its market cap dropped from about $585 billion in August 2025 to around $255 billion this month.

Their report pointed to falling institutional participation as one of the clearest warning signs. Fund holdings, which stood above 7 million ETH in October 2025, have fallen toward the 5.5 million to 5.7 million range.

At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative throughout May, suggesting US-based institutional buyers have largely stepped away from the market.

Meanwhile, trading activity has also dried up, as, according to Easy On Chain, daily fund trading volume has fallen well below the yearly average, dropping into a range between $17 million and $42 million in recent months.

The analyst described the current market as a phase where “futures-driven optimism accumulates without solid spot support.”

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That disconnect is becoming more visible in price action, considering the world’s second-largest crypto is down nearly 7% in the past week, more than 9% across the last month, and about 17% over one year, according to CoinGecko data.

It is also sitting more than 57% below its all-time high of nearly $4,950, which was reached in August 2025.

Technicals Lean Bearish

Several commentators on X argued the chart still looks weak despite Bitcoin reclaiming levels above $78,000. One of them, Ted Pillows, wrote that ETH “still can’t reclaim the $2,150 level” even while stocks and Bitcoin moved higher, adding that “big buyers aren’t interested at all.”

On his part, Benjamin Cowen said Ethereum may revisit its April 2025 lows near its lower logarithmic regression trend line, while analyst Cryptorphic warned that the asset breaking below a rising support trend line would open the door for a move toward the $2,050 area.

The macro backdrop has not helped. In a post on May 18, Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee attributed part of Ethereum’s weakness to rising oil prices, citing what he described as the highest ever inverse correlation between ETH and crude oil.

That same day, geopolitical pressure after US President Donald Trump issued warnings toward Iran sent Bitcoin to around $76,700 and triggered over $660 million in liquidations across crypto markets, with ETH accounting for $256 million of that figure.