The Position, Line by Line

Onchain analyst EmberCN posted the tally as ZEC printed above $1,200, noting:

• 32,760 ZEC short, average entry $444, opened in early July
• Unrealized loss $25.7 million

Three days earlier, the same position was $18.5 million in the red, as ZEC first crossed $1,000, when the short was worth $33.11 million. Roughly $7 million of additional pain arrived over a single weekend.

As things stand, ZEC trades near $1,200, up 4% in 24 hours, 45% in seven days and 134% in 30 days. The 12-month gain is 2,433%. The market cap is about $20 billion, good for ninth place.

How He Got Here

Jin, who trades under the handle ‘GarrettBullish,’ has been on both sides of this coin all year. In May, he placed limit orders to short more than $36 million of ZEC and then on June 7 he closed that short for a profit of roughly $11.24 million. Then he flipped short again in early July at $444, per Ember, and ZEC obliged by drifting sideways near $400 for most of the summer.

The asset then went vertical in late August as Grayscale converted its Zcash Trust into ZCSH, the first U.S. spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) holding the token, which began trading on NYSE Arca on Aug. 25 and reached $414.7 million in assets by Sept. 3. Bitcoin.com News reported ZEC at $1,046 on Sept. 4 with a $17 billion market cap. It has since added about $3 billion in value.

In addition to Jin, onchain sleuths have also flagged another trader, 0x362a, who shorted 15,785 ZEC ($18.95 million) three days ago after 26 straight winning trades and is now down $5.27 million, with a liquidation price of about $1,317.

Longs are crowded too, given open interest in ZEC hit a record $2.4 billion in early September and about $38 million of shorts were liquidated as the price crossed $1,000. Arthur Hayes, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Alliance DAO’s Qiao Wang have all publicly backed the privacy trade in the past week, with Wang saying his personal crypto holdings consist of bitcoin and zcash only.

What $1,300 Means

EmberCN noted the Jin holds other assets that have kept the position funded through a near-tripling of the price, so a forced liquidation is not the base case. The arithmetic behind it all is quite intense, as every $1 that ZEC gains adds $32,760 to the loss. At $1,300, the shortfall passes $28 million. At $1,332, three times the entry, it reaches $29.1 million.

In June, Jin covered and pocketed $11.24 million when ZEC rolled over. This time, the coin is doing the rolling, and the biggest short on the venue is the fuel every squeeze is looking for.