Speculative capital may be rotating back into crypto after chasing artificial intelligence (AI) trades, according to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ.

The shift comes as Bitcoin faces a key resistance zone that could determine whether renewed demand can drive the market higher. BTC was trading around $77,278, down 0.04% over 24 hours, while Glassnode identified heavy long-term holder supply between $83,000 and $86,000.

At the same time, research firm River has outlined a bullish scenario in which Bitcoin could reach as high as $840,000 within five years if traditional investors increase their allocations.

AI Money May Be Returning to Crypto

CZ characterized the move as a rotation of speculative capital rather than a fundamental change in investor behavior.

AI-related trades have attracted significant speculative flows through 2026 as investors chased the sector’s growth narrative. Crypto has increasingly competed for the same risk-seeking capital, particularly as Bitcoin and other digital assets respond to shifts in liquidity and market sentiment.

The money CZ is referring to is effectively “tourist capital”: investors willing to move quickly between narratives in search of momentum rather than commit to a long-term allocation.

That could provide a fresh source of demand for Bitcoin, but returning speculative money alone may not be enough to push the market through its current resistance. Existing holders still control a large amount of supply, and many could use a rally to take profits.

CZ’s Status on X (Source: X)

Advisors Remain Heavily Underweight Bitcoin

River’s latest research highlights a much larger potential source of demand: traditional investment portfolios.

The firm published its case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation, arguing that professional investors remain significantly underexposed to the asset despite increasing institutional adoption.

Investment advisors collectively hold just 0.008% of their assets in Bitcoin, according to River. Meanwhile, 29 of the top 30 registered investment advisors already have some exposure to cryptocurrency.

That suggests adoption has spread widely, but allocations remain small.

Wall Street guidance has generally recommended Bitcoin allocations between 1% and 7%. River argues that even a modest move toward those levels could create trillions of dollars in new demand because of the enormous size of global investment portfolios.

Its model assumes that 20% to 40% of portfolios eventually allocate between 2% and 4% to Bitcoin. Against a $333 trillion asset base, that would represent roughly $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in potential net inflows over three to five years.

River’s resulting Bitcoin price range runs from approximately $250,000 to $840,000.

The $840,000 figure is therefore based on an allocation scenario rather than a near-term price target. It illustrates how even relatively small portfolio shifts could have a significant effect on Bitcoin’s valuation if institutional demand expands.

Bitcoin’s price could reach $840,000 within five years (Source: River)

$83K-$86K Remains the Key Barrier

The immediate market picture is considerably less bullish.

Glassnode’s analysis places a large concentration of long-term holder supply between $83,000 and $86,000. This creates an important overhead resistance zone for Bitcoin as it trades below $80,000.

The other side of the range is supported by an accumulation area around $62,000 to $65,000, leaving Bitcoin caught between significant supply and demand zones.

Bitcoin briefly moved above $80,000 on August 27 following a short squeeze on August 19, but the rally failed to hold. Sellers pushed the price back toward $76,000, highlighting the difficulty bulls have had in establishing a sustained breakout.

The percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has also increased. Glassnode estimates that 68% of supply was in profit, compared with 65% in May when Bitcoin traded at a similar price.

That shift matters because profitable holders have a greater incentive to sell if the market rallies toward their cost basis or previous highs.

$83K-$86K Remains the Key Barrier for Bitcoin (Source: Glassnode)

ETF Demand Has Yet to Break the Range

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided an important source of institutional demand, but their inflows have so far failed to overwhelm the existing market supply.

Daily ETF inflows peaked at around $290 million, while secondary market turnover remained near $3 billion per day. Strong ETF buying therefore met a much larger pool of existing market activity.

Macro conditions have also remained challenging. The US 10-year Treasury yield has returned to around 4.8%, maintaining competition from traditional fixed-income assets and potentially limiting appetite for additional risk exposure.

Bitcoin is consequently facing two different forces.

CZ’s comments suggest speculative capital may be beginning to rotate away from AI and back toward crypto. River’s analysis points to a potentially much larger structural source of demand if financial advisors and institutional portfolios increase their Bitcoin allocations.

But neither trend has yet resolved Bitcoin’s immediate technical problem.

The $83,000-$86,000 supply zone is likely to be the next major test. A sustained move through that area would indicate that fresh demand is strong enough to absorb selling from long-term holders.

Failure to break the resistance, meanwhile, could keep Bitcoin trapped in its current range and leave the market waiting for a stronger catalyst.

For now, the gap between River’s long-term $840,000 scenario and Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim $80,000 underscores the same point: potential capital is not the same as realized demand. Before the bigger allocation story can play out, Bitcoin still needs to clear the supply sitting directly overhead.